Short term outollok for arable crop, meat and dairy markets - October 2011

INTRODUCTION

This publication presents a short term outlook for arable crop, meat and dairy markets in the EU. The report is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission. The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European Commission. Information and data available until 15 September 2011 have been taken into account.

EU agricultural markets are strongly affected by the macroeconomic outlook. For cereals, the EU usable production in 2011/2012 is expected to remain largely unchanged at around 275 mio t as an area decrease by 1.1% is met by an increase of 1.0% in yields. In consequence, cereal markets tend to remain relatively tight in the EU and a further reduction in stocks can be expected. Oilseeds continue to gain share in EU arable land use but growing conditions are expected to curb usable production by 2.2% to about 28 mio t. The overall EU meat market in 2010 was characterised by an increase in production (2.4%) and a recovery in EU net trade position. Production continues to increase in 2011, but is expected to decrease slightly, by -0.3% in 2012. Overall EU meat consumption in 2012 is likely to remain at the level of 2010. Total EU milk production is forecast to reach 151 mio t in 2011 and remain similar in 2012.